In defense of the book market

David Brooks has just opined on the state of the literary world in a a piece called When Novels Mattered. I stumbled upon it in my facebook feed and responded there. I copied that post here so I could expand a bit on my thoughts.

First of all, David Brooks is a nice man I’m sure, but he’s a columnist at a major newspaper which means he needs to crank out a couple thousand words a week to pay the rent. He’s also a conservative, which means he has a few axes to grind, which he will reliably pull out in almost every column.

In this one we learn literary fiction has taken a blow, in part due technology, and in part due to Liberal groupthink. All of this is pure horseshit. David is a nice guy, but he’s not paid to think far outside of his few check boxes, and it shows. He’s not alone. A lot of people are like this, taking in the world as it appears, and not asking themselves if any of the things they are told are true.

The past month or so I have been digging into the literary world more than normal. Mind you, I’m trying to turn a side hustle-writing fiction-into a low key cash flow, so I have a few cards on the table. One of things I discovered was a bit of the lamenting in the literary world over the loss of the male writer. There is even a shop in the U.K. talking about publishing only male authors. There in fact used to be big bold men, who also happened to be literary darlings, and their voices drove a lot of interest and/or book sales. Their cultural value was indeed immense, but they also existed in a much different literary market, one that was much smaller, and also male focused.

But dig me now, EVERYTHING used to be like that.

There used to be more gate keepers, and less novels. This is a fact. Our culture had fewer voices to aggragate around, and most of them were male. Genre fiction was relegated to a much small piece of the book publishing pie, and woman writers were rare. Popular women writers were very rare. This also happened to be the same time that we had only four television networks, with only a few slowly expanding cable channels as competition. Culture was constrained back then, not by desire but by technology. There simply was no easy way to find books outside of the ones pushed by publishers. You got what they sold you, and what they sold you was bold male voices.

I know we like to think of our favorite cultural amusements as being significant, but in a capitalist society like ours, every cultural item you find is actually a commodity packaged and sold just as much as the food in your grocery cart. Books, television, movies, computers games, all of them are products which are packaged and sold.

What the internet has done was flip the script in terms of selling products. In today’s world you can actually seek out books that appeal to you. They are not just handed down from the big publishers. This means more voices are being published, over more genres than ever before. More books are being published as well, not just by the big five publishers, but by a huge amount of self-publishers. Among other things, this means that the current market is much more reflective of the choices of the buying public, and much less reflective of what book publishers want to sell.

Books are not the only art form affected by the internet. Music has radically shifted (there are many more bands selling much more music, in expanding genres, with the average income dropping, and fewer rich musicians), so has movies, television, and video games. That is to say the medium in which we consume art has made the process far more individualized and idiosyncratic. It used to be you were stuck with Norman Mailer because that was all everyone was talking about. Now if you roam the literary web for long you are going to be bombarded by hundreds of voices, each of them telling you how great their favorite books are, and each of their picks will be different.

For years there have been more women readers than men. Now there are also more women writers than men. There are reasons for both of these trends, but they are facts. This is the current market. My reading of the room is that woman’s voices appeal to women readers. They don’t need literary bad boys, telling them about themselves and the world. They need voices more like their own, with solutions more like what they know works. Hence the trend towards mixed genres like Romantasy, cozy mysteries, and solar punk. All of them are essentially taking a page from romance and woman’s books, by removing much of the gunpowder and violence, and replacing it with complicated and “community” solutions into their plots.

I stumbled upon this when I began the process of trying to find a literary agent. Since the beginning of the year I have read hundreds of different agents “wish lists” trying to find one who might be interested in my work. This is a very bizarre lens with which to view the literary world, but it does offer some perspective. I can tell you that literary agents are almost exclusively women. The ratio is at least 10 to 1, but probably higher. To a woman, they are looking for strong literary voices that jump off the page. I’ve read variations on that phrase so often that I can recite it in my sleep. The people who make a living selling authors to publishers all want to back a horse that can win the literary tripple crown. If there are writers like that out there, you can be assured they will find them. This tells me that the actual people who can who can write in a bold new voice are exceedingly rare, but also I think the value for such a voices are much lower.

Look at the books that are selling. Look at the genres that are expanding. This is where readers tastes are going. These are the books that readers are reading. Reading still has a huge cultural value, literature is still hugely paramount. There are things that cannot be said in long form fiction outside of a novel. Right now that means more books are being written about the black experience, the lgbtq+ experience, and largest of all, the female experience. This is what is selling, and it’s leaving a mark on our culture.

If you’re a man, and used to having white, CIS male, voices being centered in your culture, you’re going to see the world like David Brooks does. It will feel like a loss, even though white CIS male writers still dominate the cash flow. If you’re interested in hearing marginalized voices finally getting their say, then you’re in luck, because for the first time in recorded history that is happening right now. Regardless of what you think about the merits of these voices, it is a marvelous thing that it can happen.

From my experience, I would say that we’re in the middle of a renaissance in literature. There has never been a bigger table with more flavors. There are just less big platters, and more smaller bowls. You can still only eat so much, only now there are far more choices.

The Big Beautiful Bill, and what it means

This week the Trump administration passed a very large and possibly the only legislation they will accomplish this year. There are a lot of articles about what it means and what it will do to and for America, but I’m going to set those aside. If you’re reading this long after July 4th 2025, Google will no doubt lead you to everything you need to know.

I wanted to save this space to talk about two things: Predictions about what will happen in the future because of this bill, and specifics about how it will affect our finances.

The Future

There has been a lot and hand wringing from the left over this bill. Some of it for what I think is good reason, and some of it for more incendiary reasons. I’m going to try and steer away from the more hyperbolic ideas, but I don’t know if this will be helpful or not. Predicting the future is hard, yo.

On the whole I don’t think the Big Beautiful Bill will change much. I suspect it will effect us less than most of my friend on the left might think. In part because the cuts to SNAP will not start until October 2027, and many of the changes to medicare (like work requirements) will not start until December 2026. That is to say the bill that the American people will have to pay for it will not come due for a few years yet. I don’t know that this will help Democrats in the mid-term elections as the voters they are appealing to may not have noticed the looming bill by November 2026.

And the more positive side, the tax cuts sold in this bill are not really tax cuts. They are merely keeping the existing ones passed by Trump in 2017, which would otherwise have expired next year. They are not current taxes that will be saved, they are future taxes that were averted. So except for small areas like in Social security (see below) there is not going to be a huge influx of cash to regular voters.

Financially, It would be reasonable to suggest that the BBB will move past and not leave much of a wake. Oh politicians are gonna talk about it endlessly. If nothing else the Republicans have put their names to a piece of legislation that gives the largest cut in public assistance in American history, while also running up the deficit. For those that pay attention to such things, it will leave a mark. But I don’t know that the average American is going to notice or care.

The thing I think will have the largest impact is going to be where much of the money in the BBB is directed. Trump wants to deport as many undocumented workers as he can, and with this bill ICE is suddenly going to find itself with a massive inflow of cash. The budgets for everything from prisons to detainee transportation went up 10 times or more. If you couple this with the tactics that ICE has been using the past 5 months, it starts to look like a recipe for disaster. Even prior to this bill, we’ve been seeing that many undocumented workers are either self-deporting, or lying low. This directly affects agricultural production, meat processing, and the construction industry, just to name a few areas. What it will mean for the future is hard to guess, but nothing good. I predict we will see an increase in the price of food, and home repair. Because every undocumented worker is already plugged into our economy, having them leave or working less is also going to depress the economy for everyone. I predict we will see either slow or sluggish growth for the next 2-3 years. If Trump carries through with his planned deportation of 3000 immigrants a day (and he will have the manpower from this bill) we will fall into a recession.

That’s just the financial effects. What that will do for us as a country is a whole other thing. There’s another implication to ICE and its huge budget that is lost on many. The way Trump has been using ICE it is as much his own private police force as it is a national one. It is very possible that citizens will start to get taken off the streets for reasons other than being undocumented. I would not be surprised if the number of political prisoners we’re seeing (which are right now mostly pro-Palestinian protesters) were to substantially increase. Regular citizens could be rounded up by unmarked agents and sent out of state or out of the country with no trial or notification. I know this sounds totally crazy pants, but I predict this is exactly what is going to happen. We’re going to slowly become more and more a police state with any opposition becoming political prisoners, while Congress looks on and does nothing, with little in the way of legal protections.

That is the thing I fear the most, and yet seems the most likely. Hopefully, I will be wrong, but I very much doubt it. Time will tell.

One last point. Our standing in the world is not so great right now. As I type this millions of people around the world will likely die thanks to Trump stopping the USAID program. How this administration treats other countries is also noticed. Our treatment of Ukraine is especially troublesome. Other countries are going to look at Trump’s actions and realize that if this is how American treats its allies, then maybe they need to not engage with us. This had implications well above the business level, and none of them are good. We’ll have to see how it all plays out.

Finances

On Thursday, July 3, the Social Security Administration sent us an email. I assume it was sent to everyone who is registered with SS or about to retire. This is highly unusual. I don’t know that the agency has ever used its resources and private information in such a way before. It is blatant advertising, and also misleading.

This is what it looked like. This link takes you to a similar page on the SSA site.

I started digging around and found some sources that were a lot more accurate.

GovFacts.org This is long, but in-depth, also covered similar bills.
AARP This is shorter and a little broader in scope.

The TL/DR is the new bill doesn’t cut taxes, it instead offers a larger “bonus” deduction of $6k per individual. This deduction is available to everyone who is 65 and over, and makes less than $200k/year ($175k/year for those filling single). It is also only going to last until 2029. After that it will be gone.

What this means is complicated, because our tax system is complicated. If you’re living on SS and make enough money to file taxes, then unless you are rich this will be an absolute benefit. If you don’t make enough money to file taxes, this will not help you at all. So it’s a very precise and targeted relief but only for the middle class retired or soon to be retied set, and only for a limited time. Which is not really what the email suggests.

Since I am 62, I will get only this benefit only in the last year it is offered. Because my wife is slightly older, Teri will get the benefit more than me. We file jointly, so technically we will both benefit from this at some point.

Is this good for us? Yes, without question. It might carve as much as $3k off of our tax bill, depending on a lot of factors. My income is not set because I am self-employed, and because my clients pay me in a variety of ways (some pay W-2 income and some pay 1099 income), so it makes if very hard to guess how much it will effect us.

What will affect us, without question, is the cuts to the advanced tax credits for the ACA, which is how we are insured. I haven’t looked at the numbers recently, but I would not be surprised if the monthly premiums on our already rock bottom insurance (bronze level) will double. We’re looking at something like an additional $400-$600/month. Yikes. Mind you, before the ACA on the open market we paid even more than that, so we’re not exactly surprised. Just sad.

The irony is, once we turn 65 we’ll be eligible for Medicaid, so we will no longer be on the ACA. So right at the time that our medical insurance will stop (not entirely, because you still have monthly premiums for medicaid) we’ll get an additional tax break. The net effect is we are going to loose money up until we each turn 65, and then we will loose less money. And that doesn’t count how the economy as a whole will affect us. Who knows what that will be.

As far as I know, these are the only two areas that will directly affect our finances. Time will tell. But in the main it looks like a net loss of something like $6k/year, dropping down to maybe $3k/year in four years.

Joy.